Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (157 IP, 4.35 EqERA, 23% Breakout Rate)
Drafted one pick behind Miller, Kershaw ranked fifth on last year's prospect list, and dazzled observers in spring training -- all before celebrating his 20th birthday. Recalled in May, he scuffled in his first major league stint before undertaking a Double-A refresher course. Upon returning, the young southpaw exhibited much-improved control (67/28 K/BB ratio in 69 innings) and impressive poise, finishing with a respectable 4.26 ERA that would have been considerably lower with average defensive support. Only the speed of his ascent curbs PECOTA's optimism for him to maintain or better last year's level, since his baseline includes relatively high translated ERAs from his low minors work.
Kershaw was hyped so much last season that his starts were monitored closer by the media and the baseball community than that of say Derek Lowe's. Despite some early first half struggles Kershaw settled down and improved his ERA, K's, BB's, and WHIP during the back end of the season.
The lofty comparisons will continue to follow Kershaw until he makes the leap, or falls flat on his face. Some have been quick to anoint this kid as the next Koufax, and while that is simply impossible, monitoring Kershaw's development and poise over the course of an entire season is something to look forward to. Let's hope his desire to "dominate at ping-pong" has him skunking batters all season long.
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