What's Eating Andre Ethier?

Everyone goes through slumps, even outside of baseball. However, since the suspension of Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier has been outright dreadful. Not Andruw Jones dreadful mind you, but a few more 0 for 5 nights might entice the boos birds to start chirping. What once was a feverish pace has turned stale recently, and has left fans to wonder what is going on?

Not only has Ethier's OPS plummeted over .200 points, he currently ranks 8th in batting average, and 7th in RBI's in relation to the starting eight since the suspension of Ramirez was handed down. Andre does hold bragging rights in two categories for the Dodgers since then, but unfortunately those categories are GIDP (grounded into double play) and LOB (left on base). Ouch.

Now obviously we're dissecting a relatively small sample size (12 games) but let's take a look at some numbers, courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.

After Ethier's OPS drop from .985 to .771, the next number that jumps off the page is his BB:K ratio. During the first 29 games, when he was ripping the cover off the ball, Ethier drew 25 walks against 16 strikeouts (1.6:1). However, in this recent downturn Ethier has tallied only 4 walks against 13 strikeouts (.30:1). Yes, that is a decimal point you see in front of the 3.

Furthermore, of the 51 plate appearances Ethier has had since May 8th, only 7 of them (4 hits, 3 walks) haven't resulted in an out. And of those remaining 44 at-bat's Ethier has made an out from swinging at a ball outside the strike zone 13 times, or 29.5%, which reeks of plate discipline, or frankly a lack thereof.

Therefore, it's not surprising to see that Ethier is seeing less pitches per plate appearance since the departure of Manny. In the first twenty nine games Andre Ethier saw 573 pitches over 133 plate appearances (4.31 per); however, in post-Manny times Ethier has seen only 202 pitches in 52 plate appearances (3.88 per).

The severe drop in his walks, corresponding hike in K's, shrinking pitches per plate appearance, and high percentage of outs via balls outside the strike zone leads me to believe that Ethier is forcing things at the plate. Consequently, when you force things at the plate you usually end up swinging at less than ideal pitches. For example, look at the following three charts. Each at bat comes from 5/13 against the Philadelphia Phillies. Again, this is a small sample size, but you'll quickly find repeating patterns in other at-bat's. You can clearly see how Ethier is making outs by swinging at balls outside the strike zone (marked in blue).

GROUND OUT (2ND PITCH)


GROUND OUT (6TH PITCH)


FLY OUT (5TH PITCH)

Swinging at ball outside the strike zone clearly explains why 27 of the 31 "ball in play'' outs (13 have come from strikeouts) have either been via ground out, or fly ball. He's simply not getting good contact on the ball in those situations. The other 4 outs have all come from line drives.

Ah, line drives. To steal from MSTI's recent post on Juan Pierre...

And - surprise, surprise - more line drives = more hits!

Which is another reason why Andre is struggling mightily. He's hitting less line drives. Last season Ethier posted a line drive percentage of 26%. This season that number has dropped to 15%. Subsequently, his fly ball percentages are going up. Way up. In 2008, Either had a fly ball percentage of 32%. So far in 2009, he's flying out at a 47% rate. Not good my friends.

So why is Ethier playing like crap recently? Perhaps the thoughts of Joe Torre, courtesy of Orel at SOSG, can explain...

"It doesn't make sense for it to be an issue other than if he feels that he's got to replace him [Manny] by producing more."

As Vin Scully recently stated, "at this level, it's a game between the ears." And in the end, that's what this boils down to. Andre Ethier is trying too hard to carry the load of a Manny-less team, and having awful at bats as a result. We all know Ethier is the type of player that allows a bad game (or even a bad at-bat) to frustrate him. Is it possible that each unsuccessful plate appearance is compounding itself in his mind, and further spiraling him into Slumpsville? The numbers above seem to state that.

We've heard reports that Manny Ramirez has reached out to Guillermo Mota and Rafael Furcal via telephone. Perhaps a well timed call to Andre ''I'm So Uptight You Can't Even Take A Picture With Me" Ethier wouldn't be such a bad idea right now. We can't keep relying on Jeff Weaver to keep us in games.

Photo courtesy of MrsRNCJMartin55 via Flickr