Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Pricing Out The Future

The other day my Dad and I were conversing about the team’s hot start, and rising talent. I cited the core group of players (Loney, Ethier, Martin, Kemp, Bills, Kershaw, Broxton) and the patience shown in allowing them to develop as a reason for their success.

“There’s only one problem with that,” chimed Pops. “Eventually you’re gonna have to pay them.”

In the era of free agency and bloated contracts it’s unreasonable to think all the players listed above will still be around in 5 years. However, there are those that deserve special attention. And so we turn our attention to Andre Ethier.

We’ve yet to hear of any complaints from Andre Ethier about playing in Los Angeles, or about contractual terms, but remember that it took a face to face meeting in a courtroom before an agreement was reached regarding his 2009 salary. If the situation should arise, I’m not convinced that he would offer the Dodgers a long term discount like Ryan Braun did with Milwaukee.

While Braun’s deal with the Brewers (8 years/$45 million) could very well be a starting point in negotiations, he is indeed working for less than the going rate for the output he produces at.

Ryan Braun Contractual Breakdown

2009ddddd$745,000
2010ddddd$1.0
2011ddddd$4.0
2012ddddd$6.0
2013ddddd$8.5
2014ddddd$10
2015ddddd$12

Though Andre Ethier has YET to produce at the level of Ryan Braun (37 HR/ 106 RBI in 2008) it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could do so this year, thus setting himself up for a big payday come free agency.

So I ask you, how long and how high should the Dodgers be willing to go with Andre Ethier?

2 comments:

Brandon said...

I'll set the bar at 6 years, 50 million upon the conclusion of a successful season.

(.300 BA, 25+ HR's, 90+ RBI's)

Todd said...

Thinking about things like this just scares me. Have such a high payroll already and aren't even paying the kids what they are worth. Just don't want to see a major dismantling of the team down the road, but it's inevitable.