With winter meetings set to kick off tomorrow at the Bellagio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas the Dodgers undoubtedly have their work cut out for them. After losing several starters to free agency there will be many holes to fill. Perhaps the biggest debate going this off-season is whether the Dodgers should go after Manny Ramirez or CC Sabathia. As the financial status of the Dodgers is well known, they certainly can't go after both.
Bill Plaschke wrote an article awhile back stating his case for Sabathia, while several articles have been written backing Ramirez.
Lets take a closer look and compare the two players.
Value
Both Ramirez and Sabathia carried their respective teams in the playoffs last season with other-wordly numbers down the stretch. Ramirez hit .396 and posted 53 RBI's in 53 games while Sabathia went 11-2 and toted a 1.69 ERA after arriving with the Brew Crew. While it is easy to count the number of wins that CC accounted for (11), he certainly can't bring the same overall value that Manny can. Ramirez's contributions go much deeper than what he provides on the field.
Edge: Manny
Merchandise
I couldn't go to a game last season without seeing loads of people wearing Manny Dreads. While you would never catch me sporting one, they certainly brought money to the Dodgers. What would the Dodgers market for Sabathia? A fat suit? Even if they did, people might confuse it for Andruw Jones merchandise. We know McCourt loves money, so its a no-brainer here.
Edge: Manny
Attendance
The Dodgers will get 3.5 million fans regardless, so this one is tougher to gauge; however, people can go see Ramirez play everyday versus only one-fifth of the days for Sabathia.
Edge: Manny
Run Support
Manny can drive them in, and out, like no other. However, the rest of the team lacked power. Only Either had 20 or more home runs (he got number 20 on the last day of the season) and only one player (Loney) had more than 90 RBI's. If Ramirez isn't in blue next season there certainly won't be another player that can provide runs like him. If there is no power and little runs scored, it won't matter how well Sabathia pitches. Just ask Derek Lowe.
Edge: Manny
Risk
Neither player has had any significant injuries, and its only if "Manny being Manny" pops up again that Ramirez might prove to be a problem. While the Dodgers have been burned on big pitching contracts (Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, Eric Gagne, Jason Schmidt) that shouldn't be enough to deter them from going after Sabathia. If Manny gets hurt, we are looking at Juan Pierre in left field. If Sabathia gets hurt, we might be looking at Eric Stults. Huge downside for Ramirez.
Edge: Sabathia
Cost
Only certain teams can afford these two players and unfortunately one of those teams is the Yankees. While Boras will probably use the Yankees to drive up offers, the Dodgers are most likely looking at $25 -$30 million per year to Ramirez and probably $18-25 million per year to Sabathia. The Dodgers would be on hook for more years with Sabathia so he will cost them far more in overall dollars.
Edge: Ramirez
Contract
The deadline for accepting arbitration is 9pm today. If Manny accepts arbitration (Buster Olney thinks he should) then this column is mute. If he declines then the Dodgers are looking at $25 - $30 million for 3 years. They won't go higher, and certainly not longer than 3 years. A club option for a fourth year would be okay in my opinion. Sabathia was rumored to be offered $140 million from the Yankees for six years. I don't think the Dodgers can go that high, or that long. Manny is cheaper, but Sabathia would be with the team longer. Both contracts are huge. Calling this one a tie.
Edge: Tie
Final Thoughts
In my opinion the Dodgers should go after Ramirez. I'll admit to being a little biased as I've had the privilege of watching Ramirez during last season. With Sabathia, I don't know what I might be missing. Manny has consistently put up Hall of Fame numbers (41 HR/ 133 RBI's per year average) over the last 10 years, while Sabathia put up above average stats (15-9 average win/loss record and a 3.66 ERA). There is a big difference between Hall of Fame and above average.
Given the factors listed above I believe the decision is clear. Sign Manny and hope Bills, Kershaw, and McDonald can provide above average pitching in 2009.
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3 comments:
I agree with your choice of Manny. We need a superstar that can drive in the "bunnies." I like to refer to "bunnies" as runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs. Manny is the answer.
If the team decides to go after CC, and does sign him, who is going to give him the run support? The Dodgers scored 2 runs or less 55 times in 2008. Some of those games ended with a "W" but you cannot lean on your staff that much throughout a 162-game season.
Great points brought up in this thread and I agree that Manny > Sabathia. Long-term pitching contracts are always risky and CC isn't in great shape.
Besides that, Manny keeps the Dodgers in the national spotlight, he makes them a constant headline and his personality sells...he's an iconic sports figure. People all over the planet are intrigued by Manny Ramirez. His offensive presence is the missing ingredient for this young team of budding stars.
I think LA fans would create a huge backlash against McCourt if nothing is done this offseason. Bringing back Manny is an obvious choice...Boras will come to his senses and work things out with the Dodgers.
Hope for Manny. You guys have a good site going. Best of Luck with expanding it.
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