The starting rotation for the 2009 Los Angeles Dodgers currently exits as follows:
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Clayton Kershaw
(Note: While there has been speculation that James McDonald is the fourth man, nothing is guaranteed until we see him pitch in Spring Training. Jason Schmidt, admittedly a “long shot” by Ned Colletti, will not be considered for this article.)
The Dodgers, needing to fill at least one starting spot, have been linked to several pitchers this off-season but thus far those associations have failed to produce anything more than water-cooler fodder. For discussion purposes, lets evaluate the names that have been swirling around.
RANDY JOHNSON
While his career numbers are incredible (295 wins, career 3.25 ERA) the one number that jumps out is 45. That’s how old Johnson will be when the season begins. Jamie Moyer might argue differently, but 45 is awfully old for a baseball player. Moyer outstanding, there haven’t exactly been any 40+ pitchers tearing it up recently. Some people will point to Roger Clemens, but it’s apparently clear he had a little extra help.
Last season, at age 44, Johnson appeared in 30 games and punched the clock for a total of 184 innings. That averages out to 6.13 innings per game. Not exactly what you’re looking for if the bullpen turns out to be less than reliable.
Johnson made $15 million last season. Any team would be crazy to give him that, but a one year deal for $7-8 million seems reasonable.
If the Dodgers are looking for a one year fix while developing from within, then look no further than the Big Unit. Johnson won’t be lights out (or even dimly lit), but should provide enough stability in ’09 while they evaluate their prospects for 2010.
RANDY WOLF
The ghost of Jason Schmidt will probably prevent Randy Wolf from a second tour of duty in Los Angeles. Although he appeared in 33 games last year his ’05-’07 appearances (13, 12, 18 games) should set off some alarms. Given the unwillingness to bring back Takashi Saito one would have a hard time believing the Dodgers would roll the dice with Wolf on a multi year contract.
Wolf will be 32 at the start of next season and earned $4.5 million last season, despite earning $9 million in 2007. If Wolf were willing to accept a similar “prove it” contract he played under in 2008 with the Padres, then the Dodgers could do a lot worse than $5-6 million for this guy. After all, upon being traded from a crappy team (San Diego) to a contender (Houston) he posted a 6-2 record with a 3.57 ERA down the stretch.
JON GARLAND
Signing a player of this caliber would erase the question marks currently surrounding the Dodgers rotation. A poster boy for stability in terms of appearances (never less than 32 since his 2nd season) and wins (double digit wins the last 7 years), there is little doubt Garland would bolster the pitching staff tremendously.
However, it’s either going to be Manny or high profile starting pitching this off-season. Garland earned $12 million last season from Anaheim and will be looking for a long term deal. Given the factors above, he’s all but priced himself out of Dodgertown. Besides, if the Dodgers were looking to sign a stable, high profile pitcher they would be in the mix for…
DEREK LOWE
..which they’re not. Of all the Dodger players heading into free agency Derek Lowe was certainly in the top 3 in terms of value for 2009. Lowe will certainly be seeking big dollars and a long-term contract; however, despite professing his desire to return, it seems the Dodgers have already written him off. Lowe says the Dodgers didn’t even call. Frankly, that’s a shame.
Lowe gave the Dodgers 850 innings over the past 4 seasons, and did so without ever posting an ERA above 4.00. He won double-digit games all four seasons, and never found himself on the disabled list. If Colletti truly is playing it safe this off-season then he’d be foolish to not even inquire about D. Lowe. If the demands are too high in the end then walk away. At least put in the effort before making a decision.
So who’s it going to be? Only time will tell. If anyone else has suggestions on possible pitchers I’d love to hear them. Please post your thoughts in the comments section.
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5 comments:
You guys know my ties to Jon Garland. In my opinion, he is the arm to go out and sign. He's young, he's an innings-eater, and he wants to win.
I was going to say just the opposite.
Jon Garland is this years Carlos Silva. He has low (and declining) K rates and a high WHIP. He's a nice pitcher, but with our defense we will need someone like Johnson or Wolf that can get K's.
What's wrong with the Dodger defense? Do you forget that LA employed a very successful sinkerball pitcher for the last 4 seasons? Ground ball after ground ball. They now have a solid infield intact for the next 3 years after the Furcal signing.
The Dodgers need someone to go out there every five days and pitch 6+ innings and notch 30 starts for the year. There is NO way Johnson or Wolf can answer those bells.
I'm obviously hoping for Lowe, but I would very happy with Randy Wolf.
I would love Garland too, but he'll want too much for the Dodgers to sign him.
The only guy I'm not sold on is Johnson.
I'm not sold on Garland and his value relative to the contract he is looking for.
It's clear that we will need more starting pitcher than we have now. Kershaw and McDonald will have pitch and inning limitations placed on them (to preserve their arms).
It always takes more than 5 starting pitchers to get through a season and the Dodgers barely have 4.
I despise Randy Johnson and it would make me cringe to see him in Dodger Blue.
Wolf is good when healthy. If he's healthy. Theoretically Ben Sheets is great...when healthy. I kinda prefer Wolf to Garland, but Nat is right...Garland has a better health history.
Braden Looper might be a cheaper alternative. He's also a groundball pitcher and like Garland he wouldn't be much more than a back of the rotation starter. Both of those guys throw sinkers and there is a special place in my heart for groundball pitchers (Former President of the Paul Quantrill Fan Club).
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