Friday, July 10, 2009

Key Moment Review


Quite a game. One that had everything, including a tense bottom of the ninth situation. The score was tied at six, two outs, the winning run in Jason Kendal standing on second base, and Ramon Troncoso on the mound. With Ryan Braun (.321, 16 HR, 58 RBI) coming to bat Joe Torre had multiple options.

Option A- Let Troncoso pitch to Ryan Braun
Option B- Have Troncoso walk Ryan Braun, walk Prince Fielder, and roll the dice against Bill Hall
Option C- Bring in Jonathan Broxton to pitch to Ryan Braun
Option D- Have Troncoso walk Ryan Braun, and bring in Jonathan Broxton pitch to Prince Fielder

So which path to take? Let's examine closer. All stats for 2009 season unless otherwise noted.

Option A
Ryan Braun vs. Ramon Troncoso: 0-0 (career)
Ramon Troncoso vs. RHB: .248/.311/.294 average against

Ryan Braun vs. RHP: .294/.373/.502
Ryan Braun with RISP, 2 outs: .450/.500/.950

Option B
Bill Hall vs. Ramon Troncoso: 0-0 (career)
Ramon Troncoso vs. RHB: .248/.311/.294 average against

Bill Hall vs. RHP: .180/.259/.303

Bill Hall with RISP, 2 outs: .250/.250/.250

Option C
Ryan Braun vs. Jonathan Broxton: 1-2, 1 HR, 1 K (career)
Jonathan Broxton vs. RHB: .172/.264/.250 average against

Ryan Braun vs. RHP: .294/.373/.502
Ryan Braun with RISP, 2 outs: .450/.500/.950

Option D
Prince Fielder vs. Jonathan Broxton: 1-3, 1K (career)
Jonathan Broxton vs. LHB: .097/.195/.139 average against

Prince Fielder vs. RHP: .306/.444/.587

Prince Fielder with RISP, 2 outs: .375/.444/.813


Torre ended up picking Option A, and was rewarded by Troncoso who triumphed over an awful at bat by Ryan Braun to push the game into extras. There are things to be said for every option above, but I wasn't convinced any one option was correct (leaning toward Option B though) until running the numbers for Troncoso and Broxton over the past 7 appearances.

Ramon Troncoso
- 9 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, .167/.286/.1.67 average against
Jonathan Broxton- 6.2 IP, 1.77 WHIP, 9.45 ERA, .240/.367/.400 average against

On any given day, if all my chips were in the middle, I'd want Jonathan Broxton dealing on the mound; however, based on the way Broxton has been pitching of recent (plus the 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K line in tonights game) it appears that Torre simply tabbed the hot hand. Understandable enough.
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Speaking of hot hands, what a catch by Matt Kemp to close out the game. WOW.

His bat (.480/.581/.600) in July es en fuego as well!

Photo Courtesy Morry Gash

2 comments:

Nat said...

Key moment for sure. Torre has been impressive this year. And, Matt Kemp is a monster. We will not see a more difficult catch made to look so easy this year.

Brandon said...

I wouldn't go as far to say Torre has been impressive, but he sure sacked up and made a tough call last night.

But man, Matt Kemp. What can you say?