Thoughts on James McDonald

I couldn't help but notice James McDonald giving up three hits almost immediately to the Padres last night. It sure does seem he's doing that a lot recently, but I had no idea why. So I went to the numbers.

From the onset of the season through August 4th, James McDonald had posted an average against slash line of .231/.350/.693, and a hits/9 ratio of 7.54. Not great numbers, but serviceable. However, since August 4th those numbers have headed in the wrong direction.

Over the past month McDonald has been hit much harder, allowing a .328/.395/.842 average against, and has seen his H/9 ratio swell to 12.38. Additionally, his line drive percentage is up from 13% to 18% over the same period of time. An increase in stats like this can mean any number of things ranging from poor mechanics, a hidden injury, less effectiveness, and even physical and mental strain. But in McDonald's case it might be something entirely different.

A big complaint against McDonald earlier in the year was his propensity to allow too many walks. During April and May he registered 16 free passes over 18 innings, or 8 BB/9. Sent to the minors in late May to work on command, McDonald has seen his BB/9 ratio drop to 3.42 since his call up in mid June. Allowing less walks usually means you're throwing more strikes, and McDonald certainly is. Take a look at the following date ranges, and McDonald's corresponding percentage of strikes thrown.

April 10th - May 13th: 55%
(McDonald sent to the minors to work on command)
June 24th - July 31: 61%
August 3rd- September 6th: 64%

Unless you can hurl the ball 100mph, or drop a 12-6 curveball over the plate, it's very likely that the more strikes you throw the more hits you're bound to give up. After all, you're simply giving the hitter a better chance at making decent contact and driving the ball. The numbers above seem to indicate that this is what's happening to McDonald. More strikes are simply equaling more hits.

In the end this just goes to show you what a fickle game baseball really is. A pitcher gets sent down to AAA, and is told to throw more strikes. He does, and ends up getting hit harder upon his return to the majors.