Something very interesting is happening in the offices of GM's across the baseball landscape. Sure, the Yankees are still the Yankees and they can spend with anybody. The Red Sox and Mets play catch up. And the LA and Chicago teams don't slouch around much either. But the other 23 teams are probably finding these tough economic times a bit distressing. If fans are hurting for money will they still come to the ballpark and purchase food and merchandise? I think it's safe to say that declines, in smaller markets especially, can be expected.
So what does this do to the still potent crop of FA's on the market? As it stands, we're in the midst of shell game...but with Sabathia, Teixeira, Furcal and Burnett out of the picture can Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, Derek Lowe and Orlando Hudson expect a flurry of phone calls in the coming days? There is no doubt that all of these players have the ability make many a team better.
1st round picks are the prized possession of any GM and baseball is the only sport where your top picks can be given away in compensation rounds to other teams. A statistical formula reviews the player's recent stats and then determines his value and also cost in picks on the open market. Most FA's will bring this burden to their new team. Not every team is willing to pay that price, and then again not every team is willing to pay that price more than once. Adding 2 or 3 FA's could really hurt a draft class for anybody. This will especially affect role players, middle relievers and aging vets. A team should expect a star if a 1st round draft pick is tacked on to the price of an incoming player. Especially if you consider the advantage to having young talent in your organization.
Teams control the rights of their young players, after 2 or 3 seasons a player is eligible for the discount prices of arbitration. Before that they play for the league minimum. Once their arbitration years are complete, the players become FA's and cash in. Obviously it is more economically feasible to produce as many quality young players as possible. In tough times, this model seems most ideal.
The big questions still remain....will the players still on the market have to lessen their demands for outrageous contracts or are they inline for $80-100M contracts? Are there enough suitors to go around? And how late will everyone wait to make their move?
Only about a month and half before pitchers and catchers start reporting...
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6 comments:
From Fire Ned Colletti Now:
"If you think about it, in the past 3 years, the minor league system has produced Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Russell Martin, Jonathan Broxton, Hong Chih Kuo, Cory Wade, and James McDonald. It is completely unreasonable to think that the Dodgers can repeat a class like that every 3 years. As it is, this team has has basically been completely constructed over the last few years by Logan White and Kim Ng, with little to no help from Ned Colletti's free agent deals."
1st round draft picks are definitely needed to replenish the farm system. We'll get a few from Lowe for sure.
Yeah, I've been a big supporter of keeping our draft picks and rebuiding from within and filling small holes occassionally with players (ex: Randy Johnson) that wont cost us draft picks. Unfortuanltely Ned hasn't helped us with international signings. I still think he has been the worst GM in all of baseball the lst 2 years. Guys like Bavasi have been bad because of his signings and draft work. Luckily we have Logan!
Logan White and the guys in charge of player development and scouting are the backbone behind this team.
Logan should be the next GM of the Dodgers, whenever that it is.
Doc, it shoulda been last year.
BTW, this site was mentioned on dodgerthoughts.com (it's at the bottom:
Sit Wit' DeWitt
2008-12-28 21:53 by Jon Weisman
Dodger Thoughts reader Terry Austin passes along this four-part interview by Richard McGill with Dodger second baseman Blake DeWitt.
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4
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Don Newcombe, Tommy Lasorda, Mike Scioscia and Sparky Anderson are among those participating in a fundraiser January 10 for the Toberman Neighborhood Center in San Pedro. Capacity is being limited to 300 people, at $250 per ticket. Bill Sharman's wife, Joyce, is one of the organizers. For more information, call (310) 832-1145 x102.
* * *
New Dodger blog to check out: Reflections of Blue ...
Taken from Buster Olney, ESPN.com:
.....But so far, Ramirez is drifting through his free agency with no big-money shore in sight. The Dodgers made an offer of two years and $45 million, and after Boras did not respond, they withdrew the offer. They don't seem particularly inclined to dangle a bigger deal, especially because the market for corner outfielders appears depressed.
The Angels say they are out of the bidding, the Mets have indicated they are out and the Yankees are out. The Blue Jays appear to be inclined to reduce payroll rather than add, and they join the Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks and other clubs in making cutbacks. The Brewers already have a productive left fielder in Ryan Braun. The Cubs have maxed out their spending for the winter and in any event couldn't consider an outfield of Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. The Tigers are bloated and couldn't possibly think about an expensive addition such as Manny. The White Sox are trying to get younger. Oakland won't spend $20 million to $25 million on any one player, nor will the Indians, Twins, Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc., etc. The Cardinals are so flush with outfielders that they have considered trading one for a pitcher. Atlanta is flush with outfield prospects, and in any event, its greater concern is pitching. The Phillies are set, having landed Raul Ibanez.
One team has lots of money and a need. That team would be perfect for Manny: the Red Sox. But they will not be bidding.
The Nationals apparently have money to spend, and in theory, if they were to sign Ramirez, it could be an interesting play. He would be a lure for fans and would give a reason for folks to tune in to watch the Nationals, something that very few people did last season. But here's the quandary: For that gambit to pay off, Ramirez would have to play hard for the duration of his contract.
Would you be willing to bet $100 million on that?
Or even $40 million? Because as some general managers have said privately, a great concern they have about Ramirez is that if you give him a deal of two or more years that is worth far less than he thinks he deserves, you run the risk of having a very unhappy Manny. As the Red Sox can attest, that didn't work out so well in the end. Thus, it's almost a new year, and one of the greatest hitters of our lifetime who's coming off one of the greatest showings of our lifetime is unemployed.
It didn't have to be that way, of course. Ramirez has only himself to blame.
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